In undergraduate school I learned that there are three ways of turning out the party in power. Those three ways are, an economic downturn, a major foreign policy blunder, or monumental corruption. Last night’s election returns are primarily the result of our current economic downturn.
Clearly, Americans are looking to the Republicans to right the economic ship of state. In the election last night the Democrats were repudiated at Federal level, the State level, and the local level. Not only did the US House of Representative change hands but Republicans also picked up to 10 Gubernatorial seats as well taking control of at least 18 state chambers from Democrats. Republicans now control 54 state legislative chambers seeing a net gain of at least 680 seats in state legislatures. Last night confirmed the perception that America is a center-right country.
Or maybe we should say that the Center of the country is perceived as a center-right right country. One aspect of the election that is fascinating is that the Country looks like a sandwich with blue bread covering the red filling. The Democrats own the West and East Coast as well as major metropolitan areas in between while the Republicans own the larger part of flyover country. Any inroads the Democrats made into flyover country between 2006-2010 were almost completely wiped out last night. America is a divided country with fewer and fewer issues over which to find common ground.
Part of this division is augmented by the reality that Red Americans are divided with themselves. While Blue American true believers have no doubt about their progressive nature, Red Americans are a self-divided people. On one hand Red Americans desire want all the advantages of big government while on the other hand they say they want their individual liberty. On one hand Red Americans want all the perks of the welfare state while on the other hand they are angered at being taxed at the level it takes to run a welfare state. Americans are schizophrenic. I offer proof of this in the observation that the same voters who voted Republican in order to reign in spending are people who would instantly put Democrats back in office if Republicans actually began cutting entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare, Government Schools, Educational grants, and other like programs. If one desires to balance the budget, it simply is the case that this is where one must go to cut.
Unfortunately, for America, turning the Democrats out of power and placing power in the hands of Republicans is like taking the keys from someone who was convicted for driving while intoxicated and giving them to someone recently convicted of hit and run. Republicans have never shown the will power to do what American have said, by their vote, that they want accomplished. Republicans, like those who voted them into office, are schizophrenic. On one hand they talk about fiscal responsibility but on the other hand they pass things like the prescription drug law for seniors as they did during the Bush administration.
All of this is part of the reason why I can say that the country is perceived as center-right. If the country was really center right it would demand the end to not only the new health care law but also the end to programs like Social Security, Medicare, Corporate Welfare, and government schools. If the country was really center-right it would demand the end to the Federal Reserve.
As such, I expect that Republican hegemony will be short lived as voters become frustrated with both their inability to turn the economy around as well as being aggravated at any genuine attempt to turn the economy around.
Pivoting slightly, another interesting result of the 2010 election is the increasing racial dynamic that is making up electoral politics. The 2010 election revealed white flight to the Republican party. This is significant given the fact that the Democratic party has long received the lion’s share of the Black and Latino vote. The harsh truth is that this also breaks down between the producers (largely, though not exclusively whites) increasingly coalescing in one party (Republican) while the profiteers of the American welfare redistribution system (largely, though not exclusively minorities) remain coalesced in the Democratic party. If this dynamic hardens it could make for some interesting political governance and campaigns in the near future.
For more details on this theme see,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/11/03/exit_polls_unprecedented_white_flight_from_democrats__107824.html
One more thing that needs to be said before we close. As long as Ben Shalom Bernanke can massively inflate the money supply as he has done we see revealed why elections don’t matter and why the FED must be ended. As long as this kind of thing can be done, quite apart from legislative oversight, elections are largely a dog and pony show. If the FED can not be shut down then it really is not possible to correct the American economic affairs.
