“Whenever a new majority coalition comes into dominance, as the Democrats in toppling the old Republican ascendancy, it brings with it a distinctively different orbit of political conflict. This orbit also governs the movement of struggle within the minority party.”
Samuel Lubell
Future Of American Politics
Lubell wrote this book in 1951 and the insights that Lubell offered in that book are as fresh today as they were when he offered them in 1951. If you are interested in the way that political parties shift and recast themselves and if you can find an old copy of Lubell’s book you would do well to read and absorb it. I had to read it in my undergraduate work and have referred to it often since then.
The essence of what Lubell is getting at above is both profoundly simple and yet simply profound. What Lubell was contending is that when a political party has strung together a series of victories that establish it as the majority party what inevitably must happen, in order for the minority party to survive and compete is that it must, in significant ways, take on the visage of its competition. In short it must become a “me too” political party.
This can be seen time and time again in history. In 1840 the Whigs ran General Wm. Henry Harrison and sold him as a populist and as a man of the people. This was a candidate and a page right out of the Democrats book when they ran General Andy Jackson. The Whigs realized that if they wanted to win that they had to mimic the Democrats and so they came up with the Log Cabins and Hard Cider campaign that put Harrison over the top.
In the 1960’s Senator Barry Goldwater complained publicly about how the Republican leadership had become a “Dime Store New Dealism.” Goldwater’s complaint was that Republicans had basically embraced the Democratic New Deal paradigm and only dissented from New Dealism by insisting that Republicans could be more efficient Democrats then the Democrats of the Democratic party.
These are but two examples of others that might be offered. As interesting as this is though I am not primarily concerned about teaching a History lesson here. What I want to examine is how the Obama election, combined with the successes of Democrats in the 2006, and 2008 election cycles might change the Republicans. This is important to consider for if the Republican leadership believes that the Democrats, in the last two election cycles, have achieved political re-alignment then inevitably we can look for the Republican party to become even more of a “me too” party then it already is. If the Republican leadership believes this then Obama will have very little resistance as Republicans look to support his policies so that they may return to their constituencies to run in 2010 as “me too” Republicans.
There is much to argue for the possibility that Democrats have achieved a political realignment in the last two election cycles. One must consider the inroads that Democrats made in traditionally Republican states. Further, one must consider the impact of minority voting patterns for Democrats. This is especially important if the percentage of the minority population continues to rise significantly.
However, in my estimation it is still to early for the Republicans to concede Democratic hegemony and so begin recasting themselves into an image of the Democratic party light. The Goldwater / Reagan wing of the Republican party still can salvage the party and avoid political realignment but it must act quickly and decisively.
First, it must publicly disassociate itself from the Republicanism of the Bushes and of its most recent standard bearer Sen. John McCain. The Republican party, in the last six Presidential election cycles, have offered the electorate inside the beltway type Republicans. In these candidacies Republicans have had precious little in the way of campaigns that have emphasized limited Government, fiscal responsibility, humble foreign policy, sound money, social conservativism, and the integrity of our borders.
Second, if the Republican party wants to continue as something distinct from the Democratic party then in the next two years it must resist, resist, and resist. It must draw the sharpest of lines between itself and the current Democratic regime. Now is an excellent time to resist, because the Democrats in charge are not moderate Democrats but Democrats who embrace some of the most radical leftism that we have seen in a very long time. Democrats have majorities and the Republicans ought to make them use those majorities to accomplish their agenda. Let the Democrats be Democrats and let the Republicans lose seeking to stop their policies. This is all with a view of being able to run against the mess that these policies are going to create.
Third, the Republicans have to hang this current and coming recession on the Democrats. There is plenty of evidence to make that case but they have to be willing to do so.
Fourth, the Republicans have to, very loudly and very often, make the case that the Democratic party is actually the Socialist Party. They should use the word “Socialist” often when referring to Democrats and they should explain precisely what they mean by that in simple terms that the American public can understand.
Fifth, the Republican party cannot win solely by merely being negative but also must offer substantive alternatives. They ought to cast a vision that is both workable and stands in contrast to socialism.
Sixth, if the Republicans wish to survive as a real viable party they must, above all, stop amnesty for illegal immigrants. Should illegal immigrants be given amnesty the Republican party will disappear by weight of sheer numbers.
Were I a betting man I would bet that the current Republicans will not resist and so will become more of what they have been for quite some time and that is just a mere reflection of the Democratic Party.